Early Oscar Winner Predictions

Since the Oscar nominees were announced yesterday, I thought I'd share my first guesses at who will win. I was 74% (78/105) correct on my nominee predictions, but I'm hoping to do better with my winner predictions. Check them out below, or here. (I'll do the shorts later.)

(winners = *)

BEST PICTURE:

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog*

West Side Story


BEST DIRECTOR:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog*

Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story


BEST ACTOR:

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…Boom!

Will Smith, King Richard*

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth


BEST ACTRESS:

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter*

Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Ciarán Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog*


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story*

Judi Dench, Belfast

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

CODA

Drive My Car

Dune

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog*


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Belfast*

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

The Worst Person in the World


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Dune

Nightmare Alley*

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Dune*

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story


BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

Nightmare Alley*

West Side Story


BEST FILM EDITING:

Don’t Look Up

Dune*

King Richard

The Power of the Dog

tick, tick…Boom!


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Don't Look Up

Dune

Encanto

Parallel Mothers

The Power of the Dog*


BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

“Be Alive” from King Richard

“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

“Down to Joy” from Belfast

“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die*

“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days


BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

Coming 2 America

Cruella

Dune*

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci


BEST SOUND:

Belfast

Dune*

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Dune*

Free Guy

No Time to Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Spider-Man: No Way Home


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

Encanto*

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM:

Drive My Car*

Flee

The Hand of God

Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

The Worst Person in the World


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM:

Ascension

Attica

Flee

Summer of Soul*

Writing with Fire

Final Oscar Predictions

Oscar nominations are finally announced tomorrow, so here are my final predictions for the feature categories. I've taken a few chances, like Kirsten Dunst getting snubbed and Jessie Buckley getting in, but nothing is more challenging than Best Actress. (Please let Kristen Stewart make it!) Good luck to anyone else predicting.

BEST PICTURE:

Being the Ricardos

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story


BEST DIRECTOR:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Denis Villeneuve, Dune


BEST ACTOR:

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up

Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…Boom!

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth


BEST ACTRESS:

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

Ciarán Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Ruth Negga, Passing


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

CODA

Dune

The Lost Daughter

Passing

The Power of the Dog


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Being the Ricardos

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Dune

The French Dispatch

Nightmare Alley

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story


BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story


BEST FILM EDITING:

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

Dune

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Don't Look Up

Dune

The French Dispatch

The Power of the Dog

Spencer


BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

“Be Alive” from King Richard

“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

“Just Look Up” from Don't Look Up

“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days


BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

Cruella

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

West Side Story


BEST SOUND:

Dune

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

A Quiet Place Part II

West Side Story


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Dune

Free Guy

Godzilla vs. Kong

The Matrix Resurrections

No Time to Die


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM:

Compartment No. 6

Drive My Car

Great Freedom

A Hero

The Worst Person in the World


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM:

Ascension

Flee

Procession

The Rescue

Summer of Soul